maandag 2 mei 2011

FSA: the worse I Feared

Posted: 24 April 2009 7: 27 AM | Posted By: Paul Wilmott.
Related categories: General, remember my blog about Magicians and Mathematicians I complained about no imagination in risk management? If you don't, then please see the rest of the blog section, otherwise this would not be suitable for you.

Well, I just had the most awesome experience meeting. Take for example magician is audience must turn thought to think beyond simple arithmetic. I started with "possibilities" and receive replies "one in a normal 52" is pointing (Magic), and people that change the answer is 100%, except that some people don't. There are three people in the audience might be 100 talk answer 1/52 original and refused to budge.

So far, so normal.

Now the scary bits The audience consisted almost entirely of actuaries (non-scary) except for three people from the FSA and the two of them being that anyone answer ' insisted ' math 1/52 (a bit afraid of me)

His reasoning explains one of them I can't chamrai resolution it's quite long but important element was that "the answers should be one of the 52 unless the magician is tricking us and really, so we should ignore this factor ..." (I apologise if I am wrong but this from the reaction of the audience, I don't think there is).

Forgive me now, but not the FSA should do in the real world where things are just not about pure mathematics? World at risk that hide risk managers moral hazard is rife and the magic magicians, er, that is sort of the whole point? If it's all about maths and we will not be FSA we will use people preview EdExcel examiners to make the sign of the Bank out of a hundred at the end of the.

P


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