vrijdag 13 mei 2011

Buffett and principles: Enthusiasm. The angry Disbelief to accept.

Posted: june 17, 2009 7: 37 PM | Posted By: Paul Wilmott.
Related categories: General Disclaimer Anger price depression accepted by Elizabeth Kübler-Ross five stages of dealing with personal tragedy. I don't know if there is something similar. We will go through with the money: If Yes, I think Warren Buffett, the period of anger "If you need to use a computer or calculator allows calculations should not be bought is a view of his investment in the famous main" weapon of mass destruction called "a few years ago. I agree, and I speak as one of the mathematicians working on main: for living.

In my experience. Managed with only four steps and they are: naive enthusiasm as one experiences the sublime of words in one of righteous anger, as one suffers loss, confusion, disbelief, followed by horrendous as one that nobody fully understands the risks in these dastardly realises least of all bankers finally accepted against one admits that these are here. Let's go through these steps one by one While explaining what means that each of the conditions of risk.

Naive enthusiasm is amazing: main: contract. Allows you to finely adjust the investment will benefit from the perspective of the market. Suppose they turn out to be valid. My bank manager was trying to have just sold me back, I promise more than 5% in one year if gold is still in range trading course. In market parlance this is called quanto option Double knockout or can use derivatives to hedge risks from other business activities. If you sell tools to Japan on a regular basis, you will be exposed to the risk of exchange rate US dollar/Yen can design a derivative to minimize those risks for you pretty far.

Righteous anger: who is not angry after trillions dollars that have been forgotten thanks to CDOs, MBSs and other abbreviation? The problem though not itself somewhat: principles: there will be swamped the market for stocks and shares, the remaining Notional principle: all the world over as a quadrillion things you think are not good enough or trillions, you ain't seen nothing yet.

Therefore, instead of to help you manage risk or profit from the perspective of the market: the market close-up has developed so much that words that seem to be just. Allow leverage crazy risk level never seen before, and this step quants risk management to not worrying that we have our mathematical models pinwheel that show true no risk.

Buffett's Charlie Munger is right about higher mathematics in finance "they teach in business school because they have to do something." Now that really hits nail on the head. When your opponent University across the River is charging 50, 60, 70 thousand dollars for a one-year master course on financial engineering. What do you say that you do not have any understanding of Faculty: Hell no, you will receive your smartest mathematicians together and to create a course. Have your way-23 years old? Sorry I mean students to know any better? In 2000 I was warning danger of "student market meltdown" after seeing the LTCM has occurred and how to manage the risks of identikit has churned out the template and how to start the Groupthink was ruled inadmissible evidence: research and valuation. Join me next to Warren Buffett and totally Charlie Munger.

Confusion, disbelief: I'm a great believer in education played a large role in the future: but not the sort of education that we have. I understand Warren Buffett when he said "additional symbols that they cannot work as their own writing more. They were revered. "universities are churning out ' experts ' analysis of several thousand, but the main: sadly they know more about math and symbolic than they do about marketing, but again not the symbol itself is to blame for we yearn to be happy on an airplane designed by using the symbols resemble somewhat lack of attention paid by many academic has the quants analyst worries me, remember that this is a writer, but there is currently little more that for over a decade now.

Accept against: we've blogged in the past about "math sweet spot," the Treasury being dumbed down version, but equally does not exceed the fantastically complex (to impress. I expect to say Buffett) I don't think we can go back in the dark ages before the budget and finance, but believe we desperately need to rethink education types that 23-year is soon to be your pension is less or more mathematical symbols more commonsense and more marketing knowledge.

And in this respect I think I have a few stages before Mr Buffett's.


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